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HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2001
 
FLOSSIE REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVEN THOUGH THE 
SYSTEM IS OVER 25C WATER. CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE CONTINUE TO WARM 
WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING 
MORE RESTRICTED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND 
OF DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT...CI4.5... 
FROM TAFB AND 65 KT..CI4.0...FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/6.  THERE REMAINS LITTLE CHANGE
IN EITHER THE INITIAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OR THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  FLOSSIE IS CAUGHT BETWEEN
TWO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES AT THE MOMENT.  THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO FORECAST THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLOWLY
WESTWARD.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FLOSSIE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWEST FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS AND THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST AS
THE CYCLONE RAPIDLY WEAKENS AND GETS STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRENDS INDICATED BY THE AVN...
UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS.  THIS TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
ASSUMPTION THAT FLOSSIE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY 24
HOURS.  IF FLOSSIE REMAINS A VERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONE LONGER THAN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES...THEN THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK FURTHER
NORTH AND MORE TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK.  HOWEVER...A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WOULD PLACE FLOSSIE OVER EVEN COLDER WATER...WHICH
WOULD ONLY ACT TO ENHANCE THE WEAKENING PROCESS THAT MUCH MORE.

FLOSSIE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SINCE IT WILL BE MOVING OVER 
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER.  BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED 
TO BE OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 23C.  HOWEVER...FLOSSIE COULD 
WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR 
INCREASES AFTER 36 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS. 
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/1500Z 22.6N 118.1W    70 KTS
12HR VT     31/0000Z 23.0N 118.5W    65 KTS
24HR VT     31/1200Z 23.5N 119.2W    55 KTS
36HR VT     01/0000Z 23.7N 119.8W    45 KTS
48HR VT     01/1200Z 23.9N 120.5W    35 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     02/1200Z 24.0N 121.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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