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HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2001

FLOSSIE IS NOW OVER WATER LESS THAN 26C AND IS OBVIOUSLY FEELING
THE EFFECTS.  WHILE AN EYE AND EYEWALL ARE STILL APPARENT
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE CONVECTION IS WEAKER THAN 24 HR AGO
AND SHOWING NO SIGNS OF THE INCREASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED ABOUT
THIS TIME THE PAST TWO NIGHTS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 75 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/6.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE
INITIAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OR THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  FLOSSIE IS BETWEEN TWO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES...
AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FLOSSIE TO CONTINUE SLOWLY NORTHWEST
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL 
WESTWARD TURN AS THE STORM WEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOME
PREDOMINANT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO FORM WEST OF CALIFORNIA BY 48-72 HR...AND
SEVERAL NHC GUIDANCE MODELS MOVE FLOSSIE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO
THIS.  THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE TOO WEAK FOR IT TO FULLY RESPOND
TO THIS CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES FLOSSIE STEADILY INTO COOLER WATER...AND
THUS CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE SHIPS MODEL.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
FLOSSIE COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY
IF THE SHEAR FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AFTER 36 HR
VERIFIES. 

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0900Z 22.1N 117.9W    75 KTS
12HR VT     30/1800Z 22.7N 118.7W    70 KTS
24HR VT     31/0600Z 23.3N 119.5W    60 KTS
36HR VT     31/1800Z 23.6N 120.3W    50 KTS
48HR VT     01/0600Z 23.8N 120.8W    40 KTS
72HR VT     02/0600Z 24.0N 121.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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