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HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2001
 
FLOSSIE APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN A WEAKENING TREND AS SUGGESTED BY 
DECREASING CONVECTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS ON LATEST SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES ARE 
DECREASING SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BROUGHT DOWN TO 80 KT AT THIS 
TIME. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS FLOSSIE MOVES OVER COOLER 
WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.    

INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7.  STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK AS A 
DEEP LAYER RIDGE NW OF FLOSSIE MOVES WEST AND WEAKENS THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS A CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWEST TO 
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER....A TURN 
MORE TO THE WEST IS FORECAST AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE BECOMES 
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ON THE 
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENSEMBLE...AND CLOSE TO THE UKMET SOLUTION. 
 
FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0300Z 21.7N 117.4W    80 KTS
12HR VT     30/1200Z 22.3N 118.2W    75 KTS
24HR VT     31/0000Z 22.9N 119.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     31/1200Z 23.3N 119.7W    55 KTS
48HR VT     01/0000Z 23.5N 120.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     02/0000Z 24.0N 121.5W    35 KTS
 
 
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