ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
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HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2001
FLOSSIE HAS SLOWED DOWN AND STRENGTHENED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF A DVORAK
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90 KT...CI5.0...FROM ALL
THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
ODT4.8 TO ODT5.1. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/6. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE MAJORITY OF THE
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING FLOSSIE SLOWLY
NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND THEN
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT. THE UKMET AND AVN HAVE BEEN THE
MOST RELIABLE MODELS AND THEY CONTINUE THE TREND OF TAKING FLOSSIE
MORE WESTWARD AFTER 36 HOURS...AND THIS MOTION WAS MAINTAINED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS TAKE FLOSSIE SLOWLY TO
THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE DEEP BAM AND LBAR MODELS ACCELERATE FLOSSIE
NORTH AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THOSE
SOLUTIONS WERE DISCOUNTED BASED ON THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE PATTERN TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF FLOSSIE...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE
SYSTEM MOVING IN A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
FLOSSIE HAS LIKELY PEAKED AND A SLOW WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN BY
ABOUT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH INDICATES
THAT FLOSSIE WILL BE MOVING SUB-26C SSTS IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/2100Z 21.2N 116.9W 90 KTS
12HR VT 30/0600Z 21.5N 117.3W 85 KTS
24HR VT 30/1800Z 21.9N 117.9W 80 KTS
36HR VT 31/0600Z 22.2N 118.7W 75 KTS
48HR VT 31/1800Z 22.4N 119.5W 65 KTS
72HR VT 01/1800Z 22.5N 120.5W 55 KTS
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