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HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE AUG 28 2001

FLOSSIE HAS BEEN MOVING 310/5 THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...LIKELY IN 
RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM 
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM. THE LARGE 
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WHICH HAD BEEN PUSHING FLOSSIE TO THE SOUTHWEST 
18-24 HOURS AGO NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING WEST AND WEAKENING 
SLIGHTLY...ALLOWING FOR THE CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS TO EXERT A GREATER 
INFLUENCE ON THE STORM MOTION. 

THE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT 
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVN AND UKMET MODELS HAVE RESPONDED WITH A 
SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE NORTH FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS. ACCORDINGLY...THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS 
PACKAGE...BUT IS STILL TO THE LEFT OF ALL THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL 
MODELS.  

LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY HAS BEEN NOTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND 
IN FACT THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A STEADY T4.0 
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA FROM 24 HOURS AGO. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
KEPT AT 70 KT FROM THE LAST ADVISORY.

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TO PEAK THE SYSTEM AT 
75 KT IN 12 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS. SOME WEAKENING SHOULD 
TAKE PLACE BY 72 HOURS AS FLOSSIE MOVES OVER MARGINAL 26C SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
 
FORECASTER MOLLEDA/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0300Z 19.9N 115.2W    70 KTS
12HR VT     29/1200Z 20.2N 115.6W    75 KTS
24HR VT     30/0000Z 20.5N 116.1W    75 KTS
36HR VT     30/1200Z 20.9N 116.6W    75 KTS
48HR VT     31/0000Z 21.3N 117.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     01/0000Z 21.9N 117.8W    70 KTS
 
 
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