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HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 28 2001
 
FLOSSIE HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WHILE 
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS 
BASED ON A BLEND OF A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KT 
...T4.0... AND A 3 HOUR OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT... 
ODT4.5...FROM TAFB.  HOWEVER...THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME CLOUD 
COVERED AGAIN...SO THE INTENSITY WAS ONLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY.

 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/2.  FLOSSIE HAS BEEN STATIONARY 
OR HAS MADE A SMALL CYCLONIC LOOP DURING THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS.  
HOWEVER... RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT FLOSSIE MAY BE 
DRIFTING WESTWARD NOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A 
RATHER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF 
FLOSSIE ...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY DIVERGENT AFTER 24 HOURS...WITH THE UKMET 
MODEL TAKING FLOSSIE WESTWARD AND NOGAPS TAKING THE CYCLONE 
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.  THE AVN AND BAM MODELS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN 
THE UKMET-NOGAPS SPREAD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK KEEPS FLOSSIE ON A 
GENERAL SLOW WESTWARD TRACK AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST TRACK...AND BETWEEN THE UKMET AND AVN SOLUTIONS.
 
FLOSSIE REMAINS NEAR THE EDGE OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SO
THE INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK.  IF FLOSSIE 
REMAINS OVER WARM WATER...THEN SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING SHOULD 
CONTINUE.  HOWEVER...THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED MAY ALSO CREATE COLD 
UPWELLING UNDER THE CENTER IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ACT 
TO HALT ANY INTENSIFICATION OR EVEN BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND.  THE 
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL 
FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/1500Z 19.1N 114.4W    70 KTS
12HR VT     29/0000Z 19.1N 114.8W    70 KTS
24HR VT     29/1200Z 19.2N 115.3W    75 KTS
36HR VT     30/0000Z 19.3N 115.8W    80 KTS
48HR VT     30/1200Z 19.4N 116.3W    80 KTS
72HR VT     31/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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