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HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON AUG 27 2001

FLOSSIE IS MOVING 230/05.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE 
DIVERGENT WITH MOTIONS VARYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE 
MAIN THING HERE IS THAT THE SPEED OF MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE VERY 
SLOW. .  THE TRACK FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOVEMENT FOR 
THE NEXT 3 DAYS...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SIMILAR TO 
THE AVIATION AND UKMET MODELS.

THE WIND SPEED REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS AS SUPPORTED BY 65 KNOT SATELLITE 
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFGWC.  LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW 
EXCELLENT BANDING AND A SMALL DEE[ CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR THE CENTER. 
 THE FORECAST IS FOR STRENGTHENING TO 85 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS
FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS VERTICAL 
SHEAR AND SSTS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 19.4N 114.3W    65 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 19.2N 114.8W    70 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 19.0N 115.5W    75 KTS
36HR VT     29/1200Z 18.9N 116.3W    80 KTS
48HR VT     30/0000Z 18.9N 117.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     31/0000Z 19.1N 117.7W    80 KTS
  
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