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TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON AUG 27 2001
FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE REMAINING A
COMPACT SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT...T3.0...FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB. THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SMALL CDO-LIKE FEATURE DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL.
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/7. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. ALL THE NHC GUIDANCE...
EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL MODEL...IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN TAKING
FLOSSIE SLOWLY WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS STALL
THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRIFT IT NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD...WHILE THE BAM
MODELS TAKE FLOSSIE QUICKLY TO THE WEST. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE AND TAKES FLOSSIE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. GIVEN THAT THE GFDL HAS BEEN DOING
THAT FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS...THAT SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH
48 HOURS... AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF TRACK AND SLOWER AT 72 HOURS.
FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COOLER SSTS TO THE NORTH...
SO STEADY BUT SLOW INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER. THE
IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN SHOULD ALSO AID FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE
SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES LESS THAN 10 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND BRINGS FLOSSIE TO 75 KT IN 48 HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/1500Z 20.2N 113.6W 50 KTS
12HR VT 28/0000Z 20.2N 114.4W 55 KTS
24HR VT 28/1200Z 20.1N 115.4W 60 KTS
36HR VT 29/0000Z 20.0N 116.1W 65 KTS
48HR VT 29/1200Z 19.9N 116.8W 70 KTS
72HR VT 30/1200Z 19.5N 117.5W 70 KTS
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