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TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN AUG 26 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
DIVERGENT.  THE AVIATION MODEL MOVES THE STORM WEST TO
SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS PRESUMABLY INFLUENCED BY A
STRONG 500 MB RIDGE TO ITS NORTH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD.
IN CONTRAST THE GFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS ALL MOVE THE STORM
SLOWLY NORTHWARD...IMPLYING THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH DOES NOT
PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE.  THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS HEAVILY WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE AVIATION MODEL.  THE PRESENT FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE OTHER
MODELS BUT STILL GIVES LOTS OF WEIGHT TO THE AVIATION MODEL.
 
THE DEEP CONVECTION SEEMS TO COME AND GO.  AT THE MOMENT A SMALL
CONCENTRATION OF DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEAR AND WEST
OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES KEEP THE CURRENT WIND
SPEED AT 35 KNOTS.  RECENT TRMM...SSMI AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT DO
NOT SHOW VERY WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS.  SO FLOSSIE HAS
NOT QUITE GOT ITS ACT TOGETHER...UNLESS IT IS JUST STARTING TO DO 
SO.  THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WIND TO 69 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS UNDER 
LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM SSTS.  ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS FOR MUCH 
LOWER WIND SPEEDS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO 65 KNOTS...SLIGHTLY 
LESS THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT HIGHER THAN THE SHIFOR...UKMET... 
GFDL AND AVIATION INTENSITY FORECASTS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0300Z 20.2N 112.1W    35 KTS
12HR VT     27/1200Z 20.4N 113.3W    40 KTS
24HR VT     28/0000Z 20.6N 114.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     28/1200Z 20.8N 115.4W    50 KTS
48HR VT     29/0000Z 20.9N 116.2W    55 KTS
72HR VT     30/0000Z 21.0N 117.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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