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TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN AUG 26 2001
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED 
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE... 
LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH BANDING FEATURES TO BE UPGRADED TO A 
TROPICAL STORM...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT...T2.5...FROM BOTH 
TAFB AND SAB.  OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO THE SOUTHEAST AND FAIR 
ELSEWHERE.  34-KT RADII ON THE SOUTH SIDE ARE BASED ON EARLIER 
REPORTS FROM SOCORRO ISLAND INDICATING ONLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE 
AMONG THE VARIOUS COMPUTER MODELS WITH SOME TAKING FLOSSIE QUICKLY 
TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHILE SOME TAKE THE CYCLONE 
NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  THE GLOBAL MODELS VARY 
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE AVN TAKING FLOSSIE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST... 
WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS GENERALLY KEEP FLOSSIE NEARLY 
STATIONARY OR MAKE A TIGHT CYCLONIC LOOP AROUND SOCORRO ISLAND FOR 
36 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN TAKE IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AFTER THAT.  THE 
GFDL CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS IN TAKING FLOSSIE TO THE NORTHEAST 
AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN BAJA IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.  NOGAPS AND 
THE UKMET APPEAR TO HAVE FLOSSIE CAUGHT IN SOME LARGER-SCALE 
CYCLONIC GYRE THAT IS NOT APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THE 
MOMENT. GIVEN THE SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE OF THE AVN IN THE NORTHEAST 
PACIFIC SO FAR THIS YEAR...THE OFFICAL TRACK HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN 
AND TURNED MORE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER 36 HOURS DUE TO THE 
STRENGTH OF THE LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE 
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
 
STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SINCE THE 
CENTER OF FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SSTS ABOVE 26C. 
HOWEVER... THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATER JUST TO THE NORTHWEST 
MAY INHIBIT THE MORE TYPICAL STRENGTHENING TREND OF 20 KT...OR ONE 
DVORAK T-NUMBER...PER DAY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE 
SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL THROUGH 24 HOURS...BUT THEN SLOWS 
DOWN INTENSIFCATION BY ONLY BRINGING FLOSSIE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH 
IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/2100Z 20.2N 111.1W    35 KTS
12HR VT     27/0600Z 20.4N 112.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     27/1800Z 20.5N 113.1W    45 KTS
36HR VT     28/0600Z 20.5N 114.1W    50 KTS
48HR VT     28/1800Z 20.4N 115.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     29/1800Z 20.0N 116.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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