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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU AUG 23 2001
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E IS STILL GENERATING CONVECTION.  ONE
BURST APPEARED AND THEN FADED NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND ANOTHER
BURST IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS PROVIDING SOME
DIFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE CENTER...AND EVEN THOUGH THIS IS ALSO A
SHEARING FLOW IT MAY BE HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION
WHILE THE CENTER IS OVER 24C WATER.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN 25 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. 
 
THE CENTER APPEARS RATHER BROAD IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND THIS MAKES
AN EXACT LOCATION RATHER DIFFICULT.  THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
MOTION IS 310/8.  THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE CAUSED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND IT
SHOULD CONTINUE A GRADUAL NORTHWARD CURVE INTO THE WEAKNESS UNTIL
DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 21.0N 138.7W    25 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 22.1N 139.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     24/1800Z 23.7N 140.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     25/0600Z 25.5N 140.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATING
 
 
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