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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED AUG 22 2001
 
THE MOST RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E. THE IMAGES
ALSO SUGGEST A DE-COUPLING OF THE MID LEVEL CENTER FROM THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER...INDICATIVE OF SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE EXISTENCE OF THIS SHEAR AHEAD OF A
FAIRLY SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF 140W.
A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS
MODEL...WHICH FORECASTS DISSIPATION WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 330/10 KT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT 
IN FORECASTING A NORTHWARD MOTION AT 10-15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF 
THE PREVIOUS TRACK TOWARDS THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM. 
 
FORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0300Z 19.5N 136.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     23/1200Z 20.8N 137.4W    30 KTS
24HR VT     24/0000Z 23.2N 137.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     24/1200Z 25.7N 137.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     25/0000Z 28.5N 137.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 

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