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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI JUL 27 2001
 
DALILA IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT...BASED ON CONSTRAINTS IN THE DVORAK
TECHNIQUE.  IN DEFERENCE TO THESE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN 35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  A DMSP SSM/I OVERPASS AROUND 05Z
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SHED SOME LIGHT ON JUST HOW STRONG THE SURFACE
WINDS ARE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/9.  RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF DALILA
SHOULD CONTINUE THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK INTO COLDER
WATER UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 36 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 21.8N 119.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 22.3N 120.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 22.8N 121.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     29/1200Z 23.0N 123.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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