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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU JUL 26 2001
DALILA HAS FORMED A LARGE CDO-LIKE FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER APPEARS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE STRONGEST
-80C CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...
AND AFWA ARE 65 KT...45 KT...AND 45 KT RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 55 KT.
THE STORM SEEMS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 290/7. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN EITHER THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY OR THE MODEL SPREAD DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR
24-36 HR FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST. THE TRACK IS
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER.
DALILA IS STILL UNDERGOING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THE
EFFECTS OF THIS SEEM TO BE LIMITED TO SOME EROSION OF CONVECTION IN
THE EASTER SEMICIRCLE. WHILE THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER 26C SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...DALILA SHOULD BE OVER 24C-25C WATER IN 24 HR
AND 23C IN 72 HR. ONCE THIS HAPPENS...STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD
OCCUR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/2100Z 20.2N 114.9W 55 KTS
12HR VT 27/0600Z 20.6N 116.0W 50 KTS
24HR VT 27/1800Z 21.1N 117.6W 45 KTS
36HR VT 28/0600Z 21.5N 119.3W 40 KTS
48HR VT 28/1800Z 21.8N 121.1W 30 KTS
72HR VT 29/1800Z 22.0N 123.5W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
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