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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU JUL 26 2001
 
MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THE NRL AND NOAA/QUIKSCAT
WEBSITES HAVE BEEN OF GREAT HELP TONIGHT.  SSMI IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR TO DISPLACE THE LOW AND
UPPER-LEVEL CENTERS BY 15-30 NM OR SO...NECESSITATING A SLIGHT
REVISION TO THE RECENT TRACK.  THE MOTION HAS SLOWED FURTHER...TO
290/4.  THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO LIFT OUT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND ALLOW THE
RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE TO REBUILD.  AS A RESULT THE SLOWER TRACK
SHOULD ONLY BE TEMPORARY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR A SLOWER MOTION INITIALLY...AND IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...AVN...AND UKMET.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING...AND ALTHOUGH CIRCULAR...IT IS NOT
SYMMETRIC ABOUT THE STORM CENTER...WITH THE CENTER STILL TO THE
NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF THE COLDEST TOPS.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM
TAFB AND SAB YIELD 65 AND 55 KT...AND THE INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.
WITH THE SLOWER MOTION IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO GET THE
CYCLONE TO COOLER WATERS...SO THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO DECLINE A
LITTLE MORE SLOWLY THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE SHIPS
MODEL...WHICH WAS REBUKED IN THIS SPACE 24 HOURS AGO FOR
OVERESTIMATING DELILAS INTENSITY...HAS PERFORMED WELL IN RECENT
RUNS...AND SUGGESTS AN EVEN SLOWER DECAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z 19.6N 113.2W    60 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z 19.8N 113.8W    60 KTS
24HR VT     27/0600Z 20.1N 114.7W    55 KTS
36HR VT     27/1800Z 20.5N 115.9W    45 KTS
48HR VT     28/0600Z 21.0N 117.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     29/0600Z 21.5N 120.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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