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HURRICANE DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE JUL 24 2001
THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER DALILA HAS BEEN INCREASING STEADILY
FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS...
THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE WELL EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THERE IS NO BANDING VISIBLE...BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF A WARM SPOT IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE CDO THAT MIGHT PRESAGE THE APPEARANCE OF AN EYE.
SATELLITE-BASED DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE
NOW 65 KT...AND ON THIS BASIS DALILA IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. A
QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 01Z INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS VERY SMALL.
THE MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...285/9. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF
A MID- TO UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THE ONLY EFFECT OF THIS LOW APPEARS TO BE A SLOWING OF
THE FORWARD SPEED AFTER 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL/AVN/
UKMET CONSENSUS.
NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR GFDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DALILA WILL DO A
LOT MORE DEEPENING. SSTS SHOULD BE GOOD FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS...SO A
MODEST INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL
KEEPS DALILA A HURRICANE FOR 72 HOURS...THE AVN WEAKENS THE SYSTEM
VERY RAPIDLY AFTER 36 HOURS AND DISSIPATES IT BY 60. WHILE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A CONSERVATIVE WEAKENING TREND...GIVEN
THE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION...I THINK THE AVN MIGHT HAVE THE RIGHT
IDEA.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0900Z 18.2N 108.5W 65 KTS
12HR VT 24/1800Z 18.6N 109.9W 70 KTS
24HR VT 25/0600Z 19.0N 111.5W 75 KTS
36HR VT 25/1800Z 19.3N 112.7W 75 KTS
48HR VT 26/0600Z 19.6N 114.0W 70 KTS
72HR VT 27/0600Z 20.0N 116.5W 60 KTS
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