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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN JUL 22 2001
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB REMAINED AT 55 KT AT
06Z. SINCE THAT TIME COLD TOPS HAVE EXPANDED...AND ALTHOUGH THE
CENTER IS STILL ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...IT
SEEMS TO BE EMBEDDED A LITTLE BETTER NOW. THE INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
DALILA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE VERY SOON. THE GFDL SHOWS VERY RAPID
STRENGTHENING TO NEAR 100 KT IN 12 HOURS...BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE CURRENT SHEAR LEVELS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/13...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.
THE SYNOPTIC THINKING IS UNCHANGED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER...AND IN THE
MIDDLE OF A FAIRLY TIGHT GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. BOTH THE AVN AND UKMET
BUILD THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT DALILA FROM GETTING MUCH CLOSER TO
THE COAST. HOWEVER...ONLY A MODEST DEPARTURE OF THE TRACK TO THE
RIGHT WOULD BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE COAST.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0900Z 14.6N 100.1W 60 KTS
12HR VT 22/1800Z 15.4N 101.7W 65 KTS
24HR VT 23/0600Z 16.4N 103.8W 70 KTS
36HR VT 23/1800Z 17.2N 105.4W 80 KTS
48HR VT 24/0600Z 18.0N 107.0W 85 KTS
72HR VT 25/0600Z 19.5N 110.0W 85 KTS
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