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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT JUL 21 2001
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E HAS DEVELOPED AN IMPRESSIVE AND 
PERSISTENT AREA OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS...AND APPEARS TO BE GETTING
CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM SAB...TAFB...AND AFWA ARE 35 KT...30 KT...AND 25 KT
RESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THIS...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTION...THE SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN A 30 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/11.  THE CYCLONE IS TO THE SOUTH OF A
LARGE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 72 HR.  THIS SUGGESTS A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...AND NHC GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH LBAR AND BAMD.  TWO SMALL
FLIES IN THE OINTMENT ARE A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION SEEN IN
QUIKSCAT DATA SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.  THESE TWO SYSTEMS COULD
NUDGE THE CYCLONE CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

THE DEPRESSION IS IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGESTS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THUS...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS REASONS WHY THIS CYCLONE SHOULD NOT
STRENGTHEN.  THE SHIPS MODEL TAKES THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN 48 HR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY 
FORECAST.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION...AS ANY
MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS NEAR OR ON TO THE MEXICAN COAST.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0900Z 12.1N  95.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     21/1800Z 12.7N  96.9W    40 KTS
24HR VT     22/0600Z 13.5N  98.9W    50 KTS
36HR VT     22/1800Z 14.2N 101.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     23/0600Z 14.8N 103.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     24/0600Z 16.0N 106.5W    80 KTS
 
 
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