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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI JUL 20 2001
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND T-NUMBERS
FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB ARE 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN CLASSIFIED AS A 30-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM. EVERY AVAILABLE
INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING. IN FACT..SHIPS
MODEL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO ABOUT 80 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR HURRICANE STATUS BY 48 HOURS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING 290/11...AROUND OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE
WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE ON A TRACK PARALLEL AND AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS
IS ALSO INDICATED BY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THIS IS
AN INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF
THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST. ALL INTERESTS
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0300Z 11.7N 94.5W 30 KTS
12HR VT 21/1200Z 12.5N 96.0W 35 KTS
24HR VT 22/0000Z 13.0N 98.0W 45 KTS
36HR VT 22/1200Z 14.0N 100.0W 55 KTS
48HR VT 23/0000Z 14.5N 102.0W 65 KTS
72HR VT 24/0000Z 15.5N 106.0W 75 KTS
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