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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON JUL 23 2001
 
ERICK CONTINUES AS A SWIRL OF LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND HAS BEEN
DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION ALL DAY. IN REALITY...THIS SYSTEM NO 
LONGER MEETS THE FORMAL CRITERION FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  A 
QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 14Z SHOWED 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE 
CIRCULATION AND THIS IS USED FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY.  ERICK IS 
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND ADVISORIES MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER 
TONIGHT.

A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST...SIMILAR 
TO THE TRACK SHOWN BY THE NCEP AND U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODELS.  
THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 20.9N 128.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 21.3N 129.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     24/1800Z 21.5N 131.5W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     25/0600Z 21.5N 133.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     25/1800Z 21.5N 134.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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