HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN JUL 22 2001

THERE IS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT THE 
CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 
AT 35 KT BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 
KT...T2.5...FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12.  DUE TO THE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
PATTERN...ERICK LIKELY IS NOT AS VERTICALLY DEEP AS IT WAS EARLIER
AND IS NOW BEING STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING
A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS...BUT
DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT.  THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE
STEERED INCREASINGLY MORE BY SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AFTER THAT.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW BAM...BUT NOT AS FAST.
IN FACT...THE FORWARD SPEED IS DECREASED TO ABOUT 4 KT IN 48 HOURS
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ENTANGLED IN THE LARGE COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUD FIELD TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

ERICK IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUED TO MOVE OVER 
COOLER WATER AND ENTRAINS COOL STABLE AIR INTO THE SYSTEM.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0300Z 19.6N 126.1W    35 KTS
12HR VT     23/1200Z 20.0N 127.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     24/0000Z 20.4N 129.1W    30 KTS
36HR VT     24/1200Z 20.8N 130.7W    25 KTS
48HR VT     25/0000Z 21.1N 132.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     26/0000Z 21.5N 134.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
NNNN