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TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN JUL 22 2001
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ERICK IS NOT VERY
ABUNDANT...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED.
SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KNOTS. ERICK HAS A
FAIRLY LARGE-SIZED CIRCULATION AND SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SPIN
DOWN OVER THE COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN
INTO A CONVECTION-FREE REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
TRACK GUIDANCE IS BECOMING DIVERGENT BUT THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE
STEERED INCREASINGLY MORE BY SHALLOW-LAYER FLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GRADUALLY BENDS THE TRACK
TOWARD THE WEST. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW BAM...BUT NOT AS
FAST.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/2100Z 19.5N 125.0W 35 KTS
12HR VT 23/0600Z 20.2N 126.3W 35 KTS
24HR VT 23/1800Z 20.9N 128.0W 30 KTS
36HR VT 24/0600Z 21.3N 129.5W 25 KTS
48HR VT 24/1800Z 21.5N 131.0W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 25/1800Z 21.5N 134.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
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