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TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN JUL 22 2001
 
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ERICK IS NOT VERY
ABUNDANT...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED.
SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KNOTS.  ERICK HAS A 
FAIRLY LARGE-SIZED CIRCULATION AND SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SPIN 
DOWN OVER THE COOLER WATERS.  HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN 
INTO A CONVECTION-FREE REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD.

TRACK GUIDANCE IS BECOMING DIVERGENT BUT THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE 
STEERED INCREASINGLY MORE BY SHALLOW-LAYER FLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS.  THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GRADUALLY BENDS THE TRACK 
TOWARD THE WEST.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW BAM...BUT NOT AS 
FAST.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/2100Z 19.5N 125.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     23/0600Z 20.2N 126.3W    35 KTS
24HR VT     23/1800Z 20.9N 128.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     24/0600Z 21.3N 129.5W    25 KTS
48HR VT     24/1800Z 21.5N 131.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     25/1800Z 21.5N 134.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
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