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TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN JUL 22 2001
 
THE STORM CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT FAIRLY LIMITED AND WEAK 
CONVECTION...BUT STILL HAS SOME BANDING FEATURES.  ERICK IS 
MAINTAINED AT MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH ON THIS ADVISORY...CONSISTENT 
WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.  THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER 
25 DEG C WATERS...AND COOLER WATERS ARE AHEAD.  THEREFORE THE SYSTEM 
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO NEAR DISSIPATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND TO 
BE REDUCED TO A NON-CONVECTIVE...REMNANT...LOW BY THE END OF THE 
PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION...310/12...IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  THE 
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT AS ERICK 
COMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHALLOW-LAYER STEERING.  
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1500Z 18.9N 123.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 19.7N 124.9W    35 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 20.4N 126.5W    30 KTS
36HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N 128.0W    25 KTS
48HR VT     24/1200Z 21.5N 129.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     25/1200Z 22.0N 131.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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