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TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN JUL 22 2001
 
CONVECTION WITH ERICK IS RATHER LIMITED AND WEAKENING.  SATELLITE 
CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT 35 KT.  SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE NO LONGER 
SHOWS STRENGTHENING AND NEITHER WILL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  WATER 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DECREASING SHARPLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND 
ERICK IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW BEFORE THE 
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 310 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS...BUT WITH HINTS 
OF A DECREASE IN SPEED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  SOME ADDITIONAL 
SLOWING MAY OCCUR...PARTICULARLY IF ENOUGH CONVECTION REMAINS TO 
ALLOW MID-LEVEL STEERING.  A TURN TO THE WEST IN ACCORD WITH SHALLOW 
STEERING IS LIKELY AFTER THE CONVECTION DISAPPEARS.  THE AVIATION 
MODEL INDICATES MUCH MORE WESTWARD MOTION THAN THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0900Z 17.9N 122.6W    35 KTS
12HR VT     22/1800Z 18.8N 123.7W    35 KTS
24HR VT     23/0600Z 19.7N 125.3W    30 KTS
36HR VT     23/1800Z 20.5N 126.8W    25 KTS
48HR VT     24/0600Z 21.0N 128.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     25/0600Z 21.5N 130.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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