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TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT JUL 21 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10.  THE AVIATION MODEL CONTINUES 
TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 
STORM WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLOWING OF
THE FOREWARD SPEED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE AT STORM STRENGTH 
AND THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS AN UNCONTAMINATED 35 KNOT WIND 
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A 
TROPICAL STORM.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS TOWARD COLDER WATER AND THE 
INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO MUCH HIGHER BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/2100Z 16.5N 120.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     22/0600Z 17.2N 121.8W    40 KTS
24HR VT     22/1800Z 18.0N 123.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     23/0600Z 18.5N 124.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     23/1800Z 18.9N 124.8W    35 KTS
72HR VT     24/1800Z 19.5N 126.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
  
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