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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT JUL 21 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/09.  THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS A 
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION 
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH PERHAPS A SLOWING OF 
THE FOREWARD SPEED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

ALTHOUGH THE TAFB INTENSITY ESTIMATE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS 
CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A 
SOMEWHAT ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE 
CENTER IS UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION OR DISPLACED TO THE NORTH.  ALSO 
SAB AND KGWC ESTIMATES ARE BELOW STORM STRENGTH.  WITH THIS 
UNCERTAINTY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE KEPT AT DEPRESSION STATUS.  WITH 
COLDER SSTS AHEAD...THERE IS NOT MUCH TIME LEFT FOR STRENGTHENING.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/1500Z 15.6N 119.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     22/0000Z 16.5N 120.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     22/1200Z 17.5N 122.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     23/0000Z 18.4N 123.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     23/1200Z 19.2N 125.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     24/1200Z 20.0N 126.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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