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TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2001
 
COSME CONTINUES AS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL SWIRL.  CONVECTION WAS
ABSENT EARLIER...HOWEVER A NEW BURST HAS OCCURRED SOUTHWEST OF
THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT...30 KT...
AND 25 KT FROM AFWA...SAB...AND TAFB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
BE SET TO 25 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/11.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RIDGING
TO THE NORTH OF COSME WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NORTH OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS DIG THE TROUGH SOUTHWARD
AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE...AND THE LBAR AND BAM MODELS RESPOND TO THIS
BY TAKING COSME NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS.  HOWEVER...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT YET SHOW A CLEAR INDICATION OF THE FORECAST
DIGGING...AND THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS MOVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD
INSTEAD OF NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE SIMILAR TO
AND JUST NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING FOR VERY SLOW
MOTION AFTER 24 HR AS THE RIDGE FINALLY WEAKENS.  THIS FORECAST IS
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS.

COSME IS ALREADY OVER WATER TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 26C...AND BY 48
HR SHOULD BE OVER TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 24C.  THIS IS LIKELY TO
NEGATE THE EFFECTS OF DECREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND
CONTINUE THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW
CALLS FOR DISSIPATION IN 48 HR...AND IT COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF THE
CYCLONE DOES NOT REGAIN PERSISTENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0300Z 19.2N 116.3W    25 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 19.9N 117.6W    25 KTS
24HR VT     16/0000Z 20.2N 118.7W    25 KTS
36HR VT     16/1200Z 20.2N 119.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     17/0000Z 20.2N 120.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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