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TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10.  THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE FORECAST IS
FOR SLOWING FORWARD MOTION AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH 72 HOURS.
 
A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER...BUT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING.  ALSO A 16Z 
QUIKSCAT PASS OVER COSME SHOWS ALL WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 35 KNOTS.  
RATHER THAN FORECASTING DISSIPATION...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE 
DEPRESSION TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS OVER MARGINALLY COOL SSTS AND 
WITH NOT VERY STRONG SHEAR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH 
THIS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 18.4N 115.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 19.2N 117.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 19.5N 118.2W    30 KTS
36HR VT     16/0600Z 19.5N 119.1W    30 KTS
48HR VT     16/1800Z 19.5N 120.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     17/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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