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TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10.  THE AVIATION MODEL CONTINUES
TO SHOW A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE FORECAST IS FOR
SLOWING FORWARD MOTION AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH 72 HOURS.
 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED AND DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL REGION ABOUT 100 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
ALSO A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS OVER COSME SHOWS ALL WIND SPEEDS LESS
THAN 35 KNOTS AND THE ONLY 30 KNOT WINDS ARE RAIN CONTAMINATED SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE CENTER.  THE WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 30 KNOTS AND
COSME IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION ON THIS BASIS.  RATHER THAN
FORECASTING DISSIPATION...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION
TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS OVER MARGINALLY COOL SSTS AND WITH NOT 
VERY STRONG SHEAR AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/1500Z 18.2N 114.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     15/0000Z 19.0N 115.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     15/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     16/0000Z 19.5N 118.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     16/1200Z 19.5N 119.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     17/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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