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TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2001
 
STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER COSME AND BOTH
CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
WELL REMOVED FROM A FEW PATCHES OF WEAK CONVECTION.  T-NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED AS COSME BECAME DISORGANIZED SO...INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS.  IT IS HARD TO CONTINUE FORECASTING
INTENSIFICATION WITH A COOL OCEAN AHEAD AND INCREASING SHEAR.  AT
THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS
THROUGH 36 HOURS...WHICH IS ALREADY A DEVIATION FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.  COSME COULD WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY.  HOWEVER...SOME BURST
OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP SINCE THESE PACIFIC SYSTEMS ARE
TENACIOUS.

COSME IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS SLOW DOWN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVEN MORE AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WEAKENS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS COSME ON THE SAME
GENERAL TRACK WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN MORE TO
THE WEST IS EXPECTED BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0900Z 17.5N 113.5W    40 KTS
12HR VT     14/1800Z 18.0N 115.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     15/0600Z 18.5N 116.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     15/1800Z 19.0N 117.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     16/0600Z 19.5N 118.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     17/0600Z 19.5N 119.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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