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TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13.  THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS AN
EAST/WEST 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION DEVELOPING A 
SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF 125W OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  THE 
LATEST GFDL IS RATHER SLOW WHILE THE NOGAPS MOVES THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY CONTINUING THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...A LITTLE FASTER
THROUGH 24 HOURS AND A LITTLE SLOWER AFTER 48 HOURS.
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5...INDICATING
MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND THE KGWC ESTIMATE IS 1.5.
RECENT INFRARED IMAGES SHOW A RATHER SYMMETRIC AND COLD CDO FEATURE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTER.  THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM COSME.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO 45 
KNOTS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS FROM COOLER SSTS...NOT 
QUITE AS AGRESSIVE AS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 
51 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/1500Z 16.0N 110.5W    35 KTS
12HR VT     14/0000Z 16.8N 112.1W    40 KTS
24HR VT     14/1200Z 17.6N 114.1W    45 KTS
36HR VT     15/0000Z 18.4N 116.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     15/1200Z 19.0N 117.6W    45 KTS
72HR VT     16/1200Z 20.2N 120.7W    40 KTS
  
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