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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED JUN 20 2001
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING...
CONSISTING MOSTLY OF SHORT-LIVED BLOBS WITH LITTLE BANDING. AS A
RESULT...MOST OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN BELOW
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. OUTFLOW IS DECENT AND THE WATER IS STILL
WARM...SO STRENGTHING TO A TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...
THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. THE GFDL DISSIPATES THE
SYSTEM WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND SHIPS WITHIN 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH IR IMAGERY...BUT THE INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/13. MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT WAS
NOT MUCH HELP...WHICH HELPS CONFIRM THE LIMITED ORGANIZATION OF THE
SYSTEM. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE UPPER COLD LOW NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR 24N/147W. THIS LOW COULD DEFLECT THE CYCLONE TO A
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS THE
SYSTEM DECAYS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE AVN...A MODEL WHICH HAS
HANDLED THIS SYSTEM VERY WELL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THE COOLER WATERS...AS WELL AS THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
COLD LOW...SHOULD PREVENT THIS SYSTEM FROM BEING A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/1500Z 12.2N 129.8W 30 KTS
12HR VT 21/0000Z 12.4N 131.9W 40 KTS
24HR VT 21/1200Z 13.4N 134.1W 45 KTS
36HR VT 22/0000Z 14.7N 136.3W 45 KTS
48HR VT 22/1200Z 16.0N 138.5W 40 KTS
72HR VT 23/1200Z 18.5N 143.0W 30 KTS
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