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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI JUN 01 2001
 
 
IT HAS BEEN AT LEAST 12 HOURS SINCE ADOLPH HAS PRODUCED ANY 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AND DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 
NOW BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1300Z DID 
SHOW THAT THE INTENSITY THEN WAS AT LEAST 30 KT.  CONTINUED 
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND IF ADOLPH DOES NOT GENERATE ANY 
CONVECTION SOON IT WILL NO LONGER QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING AT 295/4.  MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS WILDLY DIVERGENT...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL TAKING THE 
REMNANTS EAST...WHILE THE BAMS CONTINUE OFF TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  
THE AVN SHOWS LITTLE MOTION...AND THAT IS THE SOLUTION INDICATED BY 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.   
 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/2100Z 16.5N 112.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     02/0600Z 16.8N 113.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     02/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     03/0600Z 17.0N 113.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     03/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     04/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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