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HURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED MAY 30 2001
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08.  HURRICANE ADOLPH HAS CONTINUED 
TO TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION THE PAST 12 HOURS WHILE 
WEAKENING.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER AND 
AN EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED IMAGERY.  DEEP 
CONVECTION HAS ALSO DECREASED CONSIDERABLY IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING 
THE PAST 6 HOURS.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD...BUT STABLE 
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOW BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE INNER CORE OF THE 
CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO HASTEN THE WEAKENING PROCESS.

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK 
PHILOSOPHY.  THE MAJORITY OF THE OBJECTIVE FORECAST MODELS KEEP 
ADOLPH ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TWO 
OUTLIERS ARE THE LBAR MODEL...WHICH SHARPLY RECURVES THE HURRICANE 
ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THE GFDL...WHICH ALMOST 
IMMEDIATELY TURNS ADOLPH NORTHWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION.  THE 
GFDL AND LBAR SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF 
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA CURRENTLY SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AS NOTED IN 
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  ONCE THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL 
CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLE...THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD BE 
STEERED WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWARD BY THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE 
CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ADOLPH.
 
ADOLPH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE PREVIOUS 
EXPECTED OWING TO THE SHARP INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN ENTRAINED INTO THE HURRICANE 
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS 
MODEL...WHICH BRINGS ADOLPH DOWN TO A WEAK TROPICAL STORM IN 72 
HOURS.  ALSO...DUE TO MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED...THE WIND RADII 
WERE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 24 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0300Z 16.5N 109.8W    80 KTS
12HR VT     31/1200Z 16.6N 111.0W    70 KTS
24HR VT     01/0000Z 16.8N 112.7W    65 KTS
36HR VT     01/1200Z 16.9N 114.1W    55 KTS
48HR VT     02/0000Z 17.0N 115.4W    50 KTS
72HR VT     03/0000Z 17.0N 117.5W    40 KTS
 
 
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