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HURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED MAY 30 2001

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE IS ENTRAINING 
SOME STABLE AIR INTO ITS CIRCULATION.  THE EYE DISAPPEARED A WHILE 
BACK.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS CLOSE TO DVORAK ESTIMATES.  ADOLPH 
WILL BE MOVING OVER MARGINAL SSTS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE 
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS MORE WEAKENING THAN INDICATED BY 
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT MUCH LESS WEAKENING THAN SHOWN BY THE AVN 
AND GFDL MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ALSO VERY 
CLOSE TO A ONE DVORAK T-NUMBER PER DAY DECREASE.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 285/08.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC WEAKNESS
OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PREDICTED BY THE NCEP GLOBAL
MODEL TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THEREFORE
ADOLPH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD
HEADING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUES TO
SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED TO A CRAWL AND TURN ADOLPH TO THE RIGHT IN
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.  THE LBAR MODEL...WHICH IS MUCH
FASTER...HAS BEEN TAKING ADOLPH TOWARD BAJA.  BASED ON THE
LARGE-SCALE STEERING PATTERN PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODEL...SUCH A
SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/2100Z 16.4N 109.0W    85 KTS
12HR VT     31/0600Z 16.7N 110.1W    80 KTS
24HR VT     31/1800Z 16.9N 111.6W    70 KTS
36HR VT     01/0600Z 17.0N 113.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     01/1800Z 17.0N 114.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     02/1800Z 17.0N 116.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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