[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED MAY 30 2001
 
THE RINGS OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE LARGE EYE OF ADOLPH ARE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING.  CONSEQUENTLY...BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING AND OSCILLATING AROUND 5.0 AND 5.5 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE.  INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 100 KNOTS.
GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL PRACTICALLY DISSIPATE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE QUICKLY BUT THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REALISTIC GIVEN THE
CURRENT INTENSITY.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING AND
THEIR WEAKENING TREND IS CONSIDERED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT
NOT AS FAST AS SUGGESTED.  ACCORDING THE SHIPS MODEL...MOST OF THE
WEAKENING IS ATTRIBUTED TO COOLER SST.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES ON A 280 DEGREES HEADING ABOUT 9 KNOTS.
ONLY THE GFDL TURNS ADOLPH TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GFDL FORECAST.  IN FACT...IT
TURNS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT IN THE
MODEL...SHARPLY TO THE EAST BEYOND 72 HOURS.  THE REST OF THE MODELS
KEEP ENOUGH RIDING TO THE NORTH TO MAINTAIN ADOLPH ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK FOR A FEW DAYS.  THIS IS PREFERRED SOLUTION AND IS 
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0900Z 16.1N 107.4W   100 KTS
12HR VT     30/1800Z 16.5N 108.7W    95 KTS
24HR VT     31/0600Z 16.8N 110.2W    80 KTS
36HR VT     31/1800Z 17.0N 111.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     01/0600Z 17.0N 113.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     02/0600Z 17.0N 114.5W    40 KTS
 
 
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