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HURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE MAY 29 2001
 
THE APPEARANCE OF ADOLPH HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND 127 KT FROM KGWC...SO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY OF 110 KT
WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SSMI/TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT ADOLPH UNDERWENT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT TODAY... AND IT
MAY BE THAT THE EARLIER WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY HALTED
BY THE CONTRACTION OF NEW OUTER EYEWALL.  GIVEN THAT WATER
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CYCLONE ARE DECREASING...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
ADOLPH WILL EXPERIENCE MUCH OF THE REINTENSIFICATION STAGE OFTEN
SEEN WITH EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS
ONLY A SLOW DECLINE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A RAPID WEAKENING
THEREAFTER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/9...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  THE TRACK
FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS.  THE AVN KEEPS ADOLPH ON A STEADY WESTWARD TRACK...
MAINTAINING A 500 MB RIDGE ALONG 22-24N NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  ON
THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW A MUCH WEAKER RIDGE
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...AND CONSEQUENTLY SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED OF
ADOLPH WITHIN 12-36 HOURS.  THE GFDL IS THE MOST EXTREME...TURNING
THE SYSTEM BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE 00Z RAOB FROM
MAZATLAN...WHICH SHOWS A LIGHT SSW WIND AT 500 MB...IS MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE SHORT-RANGE FORECASTS FROM THE UKMET AND NOGAPS
THAN THE AVN.  I AM INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE UKMET SOLUTION AND
SO THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
THE RADII OF 12 FT SEAS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON SOME 00Z SHIP
REPORTS.
 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0300Z 16.0N 106.6W   110 KTS
12HR VT     30/1200Z 16.3N 107.8W   105 KTS
24HR VT     31/0000Z 16.7N 109.2W    95 KTS
36HR VT     31/1200Z 16.9N 110.4W    75 KTS
48HR VT     01/0000Z 17.0N 111.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     02/0000Z 17.0N 114.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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