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HURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE MAY 29 2001
 
THE HURRICANE STILL HAS AN IMPRESSIVE PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE
IMAGES...WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND GOOD SYMMETRY.  THE PATTERN OF
CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE CDO IS SUGGESTIVE OF CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS.
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SINCE LAST NIGHT...BUT DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY NUMBERS OF 6.5 CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A 125-KT INTENSITY.  ON
THE PROJECTED TRACK...ADOLPH WILL NOW BE CROSSING AN SST
GRADIENT...TOWARDS COOLER WATERS.  THEREFORE NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING
IS ANTICIPATED...AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE SOON.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
SIMILAR TO OUR STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...  SHIPS.
 
ASIDE FROM SOME TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES...CHARACTERISTIC OF INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONES...THE MOTION IS ABOUT 285/9...PRACTICALLY THE SAME
AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM CLIMATOLOGY.
THE TRACK FORECAST APPEARS STRAIGHTFORWARD.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  HENCE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MAINTAINS THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/1500Z 15.6N 104.6W   125 KTS
12HR VT     30/0000Z 16.1N 105.9W   125 KTS
24HR VT     30/1200Z 16.5N 107.5W   110 KTS
36HR VT     31/0000Z 16.9N 109.0W   100 KTS
48HR VT     31/1200Z 17.3N 110.5W    90 KTS
72HR VT     01/1200Z 18.0N 113.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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