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HURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON MAY 28 2001
 
OH...FOR THE WANT OF A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND PERHAPS A
DROPSONDE OR TWO.
 
OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING ADOLPH DEVELOPED A SYMMETRIC RING OF
EYEWALL CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS OF NEARLY -80C.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT 00Z FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 127 KT.  A THREE-HOUR
OBJECTIVE DVORAK AVERAGE GAVE THE SAME VALUE...AND THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET TO 125 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE MOST RECENT
RAW ODT NUMBER WAS T7.0.  ADOLPH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK VERY SOON...AS
FROM HERE ON OUT WATER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE HURRICANE WILL BE
DECREASING.  LATEST SSMI FROM THE NRL TROPICAL CYCLONE PAGE HINTS AT
THE BEGINNING OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT WOULD ALSO SUGGEST
WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING THAT IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/8...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND A TAD FASTER.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  THE
AVN AND NOGAPS KEEP A SOLID MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE UKMET DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH RIDGING AND
CONSEQUENTLY IS SLOWER WITH THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF ADOLPH.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...AND IS A BLEND OF THE AVN...GFDL...AND UKMET...ALBEIT
WEIGHTED MORE TOWARDS THE AVN.
 
WITH THE MORE WESTERLY TRACK...ADOLPH IS EDGING AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN
COAST.  GIVEN THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF THIS INTENSE STORM...THE
REMAINING TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.  HOWEVER...
OUTER RAINBANDS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN MEXICAN COASTAL
REGIONS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0300Z 15.2N 102.5W   125 KTS
12HR VT     29/1200Z 15.6N 103.8W   115 KTS
24HR VT     30/0000Z 16.2N 105.3W   105 KTS
36HR VT     30/1200Z 16.7N 106.6W    95 KTS
48HR VT     31/0000Z 17.0N 108.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     01/0000Z 17.5N 110.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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