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HURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON MAY 28 2001
 
SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE
WITH A 20 N MI DIAMETER EYE.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...USING THE 
DVORAK TECHNIQUE...SUPPORT 110 KNOTS. THERE COULD BE SOME 
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS...COMMON IN 
MAJOR HURRICANES.  
 
ADOLPH IS MOVING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY OR...300/07.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A 500 MB ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHIFTING EAST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE REMAINING
TO THE NORTH OF ADOLPH THIS STEERING REGIME SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE
ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD HEADING DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AND A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A
TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

BASED ON MICROWAVE DATA...THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN DECREASED 
SLIGHTLY.

BECAUSE OF THE MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...THE HURRICANE WATCH 
FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.  HOWEVER THE OUTER 
RAINBANDS OF ADOLPH COULD STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN/PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/2100Z 14.9N 101.7W   110 KTS
12HR VT     29/0600Z 15.3N 102.4W   110 KTS
24HR VT     29/1800Z 15.9N 103.8W   105 KTS
36HR VT     30/0600Z 16.5N 105.2W   100 KTS
48HR VT     30/1800Z 17.0N 106.5W    90 KTS
72HR VT     31/1800Z 18.0N 109.0W    70 KTS
 
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