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HURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON MAY 28 2001

SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE 
WITH A 20 N MI DIAMETER EYE.  SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS 
FAVORABLE...A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 
24 HOURS.  THERE MAY ALSO BE FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO EYEWALL 
REPLACEMENTS...COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES.

BASED ON THE OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS...ADOLPH IS THE STRONGEST MAY 
HURRICANE ON RECORD IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN.  HOWEVER IT 
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE GREATER 
UNCERTAINTY THAN IN SITU...E.G. AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE...MEASUREMENTS.

THE MOTION IS NW...310/5.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK 
FORECAST OR REASONING.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A 500 MB ANTICYCLONE 
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHIFTING EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS...BUT WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF ADOLPH. 
 THIS STEERING REGIME SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A GENERALLY 
NORTHWESTWARD HEADING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS OFFICIAL 
FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE 
GFDL MODEL SHOWS A TRACK NEARER TO THE COAST. 

DEPENDING ON THE MOTION OF ADOLPH...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING/
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED FARTHER WEST ALONG THE COAST TODAY.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/1500Z 14.6N 100.7W   110 KTS
12HR VT     29/0000Z 15.0N 101.2W   115 KTS
24HR VT     29/1200Z 15.7N 102.1W   115 KTS
36HR VT     30/0000Z 16.3N 103.0W   110 KTS
48HR VT     30/1200Z 17.0N 104.0W   105 KTS
72HR VT     31/1200Z 18.5N 106.0W    90 KTS
 
 
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