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HURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON MAY 28 2001
  
BASED ON IR FIXES WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE...THE MOTION OVER THE PAST 
SEVERAL HOURS ENDING AT 0415 UTC WAS ABOUT 305/05.  THERE HAVE BEEN 
NO SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE HURRICANE AVAILABLE SINCE 0415 UTC.  THE 
GFDL MODEL SHOWS A SLOW 5 KT NORTHWESTWARD MOTION NEARLY PARALLEL TO 
THE COAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE UKMET MODEL IS EVEN SLOWER AND 
THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS EITHER SIMILAR TO THE GFDL OR TAKES THE 
TRACK FARTHER WEST.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO  
THE STEERING CURRENTS WITH A WEAK PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
MEXICO CHANGING LITTLE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  BASED 
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO EXTEND THE WATCH AND 
WARNING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AT LEAST 105 KT (AS OF 0415 UTC).  THERE 
IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 
CYCLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE RADII OF 34-KT WIND SPEED AND 12 FT SEAS HAVE BOTH BEEN INCREASED 
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT BASED ON A 0600 UTC SHIP REPORT.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0900Z 14.3N 100.4W   110 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 14.7N 101.1W   115 KTS
24HR VT     29/0600Z 15.3N 102.0W   115 KTS
36HR VT     29/1800Z 15.8N 102.8W   110 KTS
48HR VT     30/0600Z 16.3N 103.7W   105 KTS
72HR VT     31/0600Z 17.5N 105.5W    95 KTS
 
 
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