HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR
HURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN MAY 27 2001

...CORRECTED FOR INITIAL INTENSITY IN FIRST PARAGRAPH...
 
DEEP COLD CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND IS NOW ENCIRCLING THE 
WELL-DEFINED EYE OF ADOLPH.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z WERE 
90 AND 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...BUT SINCE THEN THE 
EYE DIAMETER HAS DECREASED AND THE OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS ARE PUSHING 
6.0.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 105 KT.  
 
AFTER MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD LAST NIGHT...ADOLPH HAS BEEN EXECUTING A
LOOP TODAY...TURNING FIRST TO THE NORTH AND NOW TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST.  OVER THE PAST 6-9 HOURS THE FORWARD SPEED HAS
INCREASED A BIT...TO 4 OR 5 KT.  IT APPEARS THAT THE DOMINANT
SYNOPTIC STEERING FEATURE IS NOW THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  BOTH THE UKMET AND NCEP AVN MODELS SLIDE
THIS HIGH EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS EVOLUTION WOULD
SUGGEST ENOUGH OF A WESTWARD MOTION TO KEEP ADOLPH OFFSHORE.  ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS SIGNIFICANT RIDGING OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA THAT BRINGS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE MEXICAN COAST IN
ABOUT 36-48 HOURS.  THE GFDL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE NOGAPS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT IS FASTER.  
GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE WIND RADII...IT IS TIME FOR A 
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PART OF THE MEXICAN COAST.

THE HURRICANE IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA OF HIGH UPPER OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.  NO INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING...BUT THEN NONE ANTICIPATED THE STRENGTHENING WE HAVE
ALREADY SEEN.  LOW CLOUD MOTIONS IN THE IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT OF
ADOLPH SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION MAY HAVE CONTRACTED SOMEWHAT
TODAY AND THE 34 KT WIN RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED INWARD.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 14.1N 100.0W   105 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 14.6N 100.3W   115 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 15.3N 101.2W   115 KTS
36HR VT     29/1200Z 16.0N 102.1W   110 KTS
48HR VT     30/0000Z 16.5N 103.0W   105 KTS
72HR VT     31/0000Z 17.5N 105.0W    95 KTS
 
 
NNNN