HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN MAY 27 2001
 
A PRONOUNCED EYE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE IMAGERY.  DVORAK CONSTRAINTS
LIMIT SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO MINIMAL HURRICANE
STRENGTH...BUT BASED ON OBJECTIVE DATA T-NUMBERS AND THE IMPRESSIVE
ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...CURRENT WINDS ARE SET TO 80 KNOTS.  THE
HURRICANE IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA OF HIGH UPPER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED PER THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
A NORTHWARD DRIFT HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE
NCEP AND U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD INDUCE A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE ABOVE GUIDANCE KEEPS ADOLPH OFFSHORE...HOWEVER THE GFDL BRINGS
THE CENTER TO THE COAST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE
NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS LANDFALL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  IN THE LATTER MODEL
RUN...IT APPEARS THAT THE BUILDING OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE IS PRODUCING THE MOTION TOWARD THE COAST.
 
IF THE NORTHWARD MOTION PERSISTS...A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO
LATER TONIGHT.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/2100Z 13.7N  99.6W    80 KTS
12HR VT     28/0600Z 14.0N  99.5W    85 KTS
24HR VT     28/1800Z 14.8N 100.2W    90 KTS
36HR VT     29/0600Z 15.5N 101.0W    95 KTS
48HR VT     29/1800Z 16.0N 102.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     30/1800Z 17.0N 104.0W    85 KTS
 
 
NNNN