HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT MAY 26 2001
 
THE ORGANIZATION OF ADOLPH HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING...
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT RAINBAND IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND SOME ADDITIONAL BANDING CLOSE TO THE CIRCULATION
CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT
FROM SAB...AND ON THIS BASIS THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS GOOD TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER BUT
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.

ADOLPH HAS MOVED LITTLE THIS EVENING...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 140/2.  THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHWESTWARD
FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES...WHILE A LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON
WHICH OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE TRACK
OF ADOLPH.  BOTH THE AVN AND THE UKMET MODELS FORECAST THE
ANTICYCLONE TO DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IMPART A
WESTWARD STEERING CURRENT TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...THE
GFDL SUGGESTS THAT ADOLPH WILL REMAIN IN THE TROUGH...AND IN FACT GET
CARRIED NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MEXICAN COAST IN 72 HOURS.  LITTLE 
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO IN EITHER CASE...BUT THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY.

THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF ADOLPH IS IN PART DEPENDENT ON WHICH OF THE 
TRACK SCENARIOS UNFOLD.  A WESTWARD MOTION UNDERNEATH THE MID-LEVEL 
HIGH WOULD LIKELY BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT THAN A 
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
ASSUMES THE FORMER SCENARIO AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF ADOLPH...ALL
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0300Z 13.5N 100.4W    45 KTS
12HR VT     27/1200Z 13.5N 100.5W    50 KTS
24HR VT     28/0000Z 13.5N 100.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     28/1200Z 13.5N 100.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     29/0000Z 13.7N 100.7W    70 KTS
72HR VT     30/0000Z 14.0N 101.0W    70 KTS
 
 
NNNN