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TROPICAL STORM ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT MAY 26 2001
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTER OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION
AND BANDING FEATURES ARE BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT THE
WINDS HAVE REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  THEREFORE...THE
DEPRESSION IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ADOLPH AT THIS
TIME...THE FIRST NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE 2001 EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SEASON.

THE OCEAN IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT.  A
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS AS WELL AS CLIMATOLOGY.  THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO BRING ADOLPH TO HURRICANE STATUS BY 36 TO 48 HOURS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS DUE
TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AS WELL AS SOME REORGANIZATION OF THE
CENTER.  LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...LONG RANGE GLOBAL MODELS...THE AVN...NOGAPS AND
UK...MOVE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO EASTWARD.  THIS
PATTERN WOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ONLY THE GFDL
MOVES THE TROPICAL STORM SLOWLY EASTWARD AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST
OVER MEXICO BEYOND 3 DAYS.

ALTHOUGH NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED FOR MEXICO AT THIS
TIME...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/2100Z 13.9N 100.4W    35 KTS
12HR VT     27/0600Z 14.0N 100.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     27/1800Z 14.0N 100.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     28/0600Z 14.0N 100.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     28/1800Z 14.0N 100.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     29/1800Z 14.0N 101.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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