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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT MAY 26 2001
 
SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SUGGEST THAT...SO FAR...THE DEPRESSION
HAS NOT INTENSIFIED AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
OR THE GFDL.  THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN TRANSIENT.  LATEST MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT
THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW
MOVING AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM.  THE FLOW PATTERN OBSERVED ON MICROWAVE
DATA DOES NOT APPEAR TO AGREE VERY WELL WITH CONVENTIONAL VIS IMAGES
AT THIS TIME.

BECAUSE THE OCEAN IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.  THE GFDL IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS
YESTERDAY IN MAKING THE CYCLONE A STRONG HURRICANE.  IT IS NOW MORE
ALONG THE LINE OF SHIPS MODEL WHICH ONLY SHOWS A MODEST INCREASE IN
INTENSITY.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BARELY MOVED SINCE YESTERDAY.  STEERING CURRENTS
ARE WEAK AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS.  
THEREAFTER...LONG RANGE GLOBAL MODELS...MAINLY AVN AND NOGAPS...MOVE 
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO EASTWARD.  THIS PATTERN 
WOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD BY THE END 
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED FOR MEXICO AT THIS TIME. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/1500Z 14.0N 101.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     27/0000Z 14.0N 101.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     27/1200Z 14.0N 101.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     28/0000Z 14.0N 101.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     28/1200Z 14.0N 101.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     29/1200Z 14.5N 103.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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