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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2001
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE
DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND CONVECTION TO
BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE FIRST DEPRESSION OF THE
2001 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS WELL-DEFINED CURVED BANDS AND DEEP CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER OF ITS BROAD CIRCULATION.  THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE OCEAN IS WARM.  THE GDFL BRINGS THE
DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STATUS IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS LESS AGGRESSIVE BUT STILL MAKES THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE 
IN 48 HOURS.

THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH PERHAPS A
SMALL WESTWARD DRIFT.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREFORE...LITTLE MOTION IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...LONG RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN.  THIS WOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED FOR MEXICO AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...RAINBANDS MAY CONTINUE AFFECTING THE COAST PRIMARILY FROM 
PUERTO ANGEL TO ZIHUATANEJO.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 13.8N 101.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 14.0N 101.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 14.0N 101.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     27/0600Z 14.0N 101.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     27/1800Z 14.0N 101.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     28/1800Z 14.5N 102.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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