ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 10 AM EST TUE DEC 04 2001 THE CENTER IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED ALONG AN EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST AXIS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...HOWEVER DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE DOWN TO 1.5...SUGGESTING THAT WEAKENING IS TAKING PLACE. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER OLGA ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...AN INCREASED EAST- NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME SHEAR ON OLGA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO INTO A REMNANT LOW OR AN OPEN TROUGH. OLGA IS DRIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...AND TO THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 27.5N 68.0W 30 KTS 12HR VT 05/0000Z 27.1N 68.4W 30 KTS 24HR VT 05/1200Z 26.0N 69.0W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 06/0000Z 24.8N 71.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 06/1200Z 24.5N 73.5W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 07/1200Z 24.5N 78.5W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW NNNN