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TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST TUE DEC 04 2001

THE CENTER IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND 
THE LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED ALONG AN 
EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST AXIS.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS 
MAINTAINED AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...HOWEVER DATA T-NUMBERS FROM 
TAFB AND SAB ARE DOWN TO 1.5...SUGGESTING THAT WEAKENING IS TAKING 
PLACE.  THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER OLGA ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX 
SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...AN INCREASED EAST- 
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME SHEAR ON OLGA.  
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO INTO A REMNANT 
LOW OR AN OPEN TROUGH.

OLGA IS DRIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN 
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY.  A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE A 
MORE WESTWARD MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THIS FORECAST IS SIMILAR 
TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...AND TO THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. 

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/1500Z 27.5N  68.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     05/0000Z 27.1N  68.4W    30 KTS
24HR VT     05/1200Z 26.0N  69.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     06/0000Z 24.8N  71.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     06/1200Z 24.5N  73.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     07/1200Z 24.5N  78.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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